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Geomagnetic Field & Pole Shift

What the measurements say about Earth's magnetic field today, followed by popular claims about reversals and pole shifts, each graded with its evidence and sources.

Status of the geomagnetic field

Figures checked 22 October 2026 (America/New_York). Each figure gives the date of the data or report it comes from. Source numbers link to the list at the bottom of this page.

Global strength trend

≈ 9% weaker in 200 years

That is the global average according to ESA (2020) and NASA (2021) [1][2]. USGS puts the fall at about 10% since the 1830s [3], and Brown et al. (2018) at about 5% per century since 1840 [4]. For context, NASA notes the field is still about as strong as it has been over the past 100,000 years and about twice its million-year average [2].

North magnetic pole (WMM2025, epoch 2025.0)

85.762°N, 139.298°E

Its drift slowed from up to 55 km/yr in the 2000s to about 35 km/yr in the five years before the December 2024 model release [5][6]. NOAA NCEI's 2025 annual report (published Dec 2025, announced 9 Jan 2026) measured 36 km/yr over the past year [7]. It is still heading toward Siberia.

South magnetic pole (WMM2025, epoch 2025.0)

63.851°S, 135.078°E

It drifts far more slowly: 9 km/yr over the past year in NCEI's 2025 report [7], and it has moved very little in the past decade according to BGS [5].

Dipole (geomagnetic) poles, 2025.0

80.85°N 72.76°W · 80.85°S 107.24°E

The best-fit dipole axis is tilted 9.21° from the rotation axis [8]. Auroral ovals are centred on these geomagnetic poles, not on the dip poles [8], which is why they matter for aurora forecasts.

South Atlantic Anomaly (Swarm, 2014.0 → 2025.0)

+0.9% of Earth's surface

The area where the field is below 26,000 nT grew by 0.9% of Earth's surface, about half the area of continental Europe. Its minimum fell from 22,430 to 22,094 nT, and a lobe southwest of Africa has weakened fastest since 2020 [9][10]. NCEI's 2025 report describes 8% growth in size over the past year [7]. BGS reports a new weak region forming offshore of South Africa [5].

Strong-field regions (Swarm, 2014.0 → 2025.0)

Canada ↓ · Siberia ↑

The Canadian maximum fell from 58,832 to 58,031 nT and its strong-field area shrank by 0.65% of Earth's surface. The Siberian maximum rose from 61,359 to 61,619 nT and its area grew by 0.42% [9]. This is consistent with the north pole's drift toward Siberia.

Reversal record

Last full reversal ≈ 773,000 years ago

Singer et al. (2019) date the Matuyama–Brunhes reversal to about 773,000 years ago; USGS rounds it to about 780,000 [11][12]. The Laschamp excursion was about 41,000 years ago [4]. USGS describes reversal timing as random [12], and when asked whether one is about to happen it answers "almost certainly not" [3].

Three different things called "pole shift"

Magnetic pole drift, excursions and reversals. The magnetic field changes because of flow in the liquid outer core. The planet itself does not move. Most of the data above is about this.
True polar wander. The whole solid Earth slowly reorients relative to its spin axis as mass is redistributed. This is accepted in mainstream geophysics. It works over millions of years, and large events (more than 10°) have been identified at several points in Earth's history [13].
Rapid crustal displacement and related proposals. In these, the outer shell or mantle shifts quickly. They include Hapgood, Chan Thomas and ECDO. They are presented neutrally below as Leading Edge, with the verdict "Open question". See how labels work.

Claims in this section

Claim	Status	Verdict
Earth's magnetic field is weakening	Mainstream	Supported by measurements
A geomagnetic reversal is overdue or imminent	Contested	Overdue: depends on how you average. Imminent: no measured sign yet
The magnetic north pole is racing toward Siberia	Mainstream	Supported, but it has slowed
The South Atlantic Anomaly is growing and splitting	Mainstream	Supported by satellite data
A magnetic pole reversal would cause mass extinction or catastrophe	Leading Edge	Open question
A reversal would leave Earth unprotected and strip the atmosphere	Leading Edge	Open question
Solar activity causes pole shifts	Leading Edge	Open question
Rapid crustal displacement (Hapgood, Chan Thomas)	Leading Edge	Open question
ECDO: Exothermic Core-Mantle Decoupling - Dzhanibekov Oscillation	Leading Edge	Open question

None of these pages predict a reversal or pole shift, and none give safety or health advice.

Sources

ESA, 20 May 2020: Swarm probes weakening of Earth's magnetic field. esa.int
NASA Science (2021): Flip Flop: Why Variations in Earth's Magnetic Field Aren't Causing Today's Climate Change. science.nasa.gov
USGS FAQ: Are we about to have a magnetic reversal? usgs.gov
Brown, M. et al. (2018). Earth's magnetic field is probably not reversing. PNAS. doi:10.1073/pnas.1722110115
British Geological Survey news: Update to essential scientific reference maps reveals new movement of the Earth's magnetic field (IGRF-14). bgs.ac.uk
British Geological Survey press release, 17 Dec 2024: World Magnetic Model 2025 released. bgs.ac.uk
NOAA NCEI news, 9 Jan 2026: 2025 WMM Annual Report (State of the Geomagnetic Field) is released. ncei.noaa.gov
NOAA NCEI: Wandering of the Geomagnetic Poles (WMM2025 pole positions). ncei.noaa.gov
Finlay, C. C. et al. (2025). Core field changes from eleven years of Swarm satellite observations. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors. doi:10.1016/j.pepi.2025.107447
ESA, 13 Oct 2025: Swarm reveals growing weak spot in Earth's magnetic field. esa.int
Singer, B. S. et al. (2019). Synchronizing volcanic, sedimentary, and ice core records of Earth's last magnetic polarity reversal. Science Advances. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw4621
USGS FAQ: Is it true that Earth's magnetic field occasionally reverses its polarity? usgs.gov
Wang, C. & Mitchell, R. N. (2023). True polar wander in the Earth system. Science China Earth Sciences. doi:10.1007/s11430-022-1105-2

Text on this page is original. Figures are attributed and linked to their sources. Pole positions are model values (WMM2025) for epoch 2025.0. NOAA, USGS and NASA material is U.S. government work; we credit it but are not affiliated with or endorsed by any agency. General education only. Disclaimer.